I’ll never forget sailing with my buddies on San Francisco Bay back in the summer of 2016.
Both are high-tech investors who were absolutely convinced that Donald J. Trump had exactly zero chance of becoming president.
But I strongly disagreed. That’s because I follow these things closely since big political elections can affect the stock market, not to mention every sector of the economy, including high tech.
On top of all that, I was a young auto analyst in Detroit back in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected. I personally talked with union members who crossed party lines and helped put Reagan in the White House.
I told my sailing buddies that the same dynamic was at work in 2016. I didn’t just predict that Trump would win, I walked them through several of the key districts and showed them exactly how he would do it.
Here I go again…I believe that Trump now has a much better chance of getting reelected than he did before the Democratic-led impeachment hearings began.
Crunching the Numbers
I say that knowing full well that, on the morning of December 10, the House unveiled articles of impeachment that will almost certainly impeach Trump. Then, this morning, the House Judiciary Committee voted to bring the articles for a vote before the entire House of Representatives. But I don’t see the Republican-controlled Senate convicting the 45th president and removing him from office.
If you have followed along with me for any time at all you already know I’m a big believer in data. That and being consistent.
By citing results from polling firm Rasmussen Reports, I am doing both. I have checked that source at least once a week for more than a decade – including the entire tenure for Barrack Obama.
When the House impeachment hearings began last month, Trump’s approval rating was hovering around 46%. Last Friday, December sixth, it rose to 52% among likely voters, those who actually have a track record of casting ballots.
Yes, that’s just one day and it will likely fall a bit in the days ahead. But it came right on the heels of the televised impeachment hearings that should have driven down the president’s poll numbers.
Bear in mind that Trump has tied or outpolled Obama on Rasmussen for much of this year. And Obama went on to win reelection in a walk.
Here’s what voters will have to ask themselves; do they want to replace an impeached president with a strong economy at his back for an unproven leader?
The Bottom Line
Let’s be clear about something. Despite our trade war with China and concerns about slowing economic growth, the stock market keeps hitting new highs.
Then again, as I have been saying for some time now, the economy is in overall good shape. I have repeatedly told you to ignore the stories we have seen over the last year suggesting a recession was at hand.
I did so in a chat we had back on Oct. 11. If you want to see for yourself, simply click here to access it.
And now the esteemed Wall Street Journal agrees with me. The headline in last Friday’s edition said it all: “Strong U.S. Hiring Eases Concern About Economy.”
Make no mistake. The jobs picture is great right now, the best we have seen in 50 years. In November, U.S. employers added 266,000 jobs.
And it’s not just jobs that mark this as a great time for the economy. It also means that lots of the groundbreaking tech firms that we follow could have nowhere to go but straight up. A great example of this is the tiny company developing something I call “Dark Burst” technology.
I’ve recently uncovered it as a play on the $2.2 trillion solar market, and there’s a specific mandate going into effect in just 18 days that could cause this small company to skyrocket. Just click here to check it out.
But, there’s also bad news with an economy on the rise. Well, bad news for some.
A couple of key data points are very bad news for the Democrats. The reason: their constituent groups are doing great. Hispanics have a jobless rate of 3.9%, adult women come in at 3.5% and for Asians it is now just 2.5%.
Add it all up and you can see why at this stage I believe Trump has a good shot at getting reelected.
No, the blazing returns of the last three years may not materialize again. But if Trump stays in the White House, I do think the markets will do well.
And if he actually comes to favorable terms on trade with China in the months ahead, we may be off to the races once again.
Cheers and good investing,
Michael A. Robinson